Оригинална статия Школи на икономическата мисъл и методология

DECLINE IN GLOBAL GDP GROWTH AFTER SOLAR MAXIMUMS (1961–2024)

Владимир Белкин - Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Получена: 31 мар 2026
Ревизирана:
Публикувана:
Сваляния: 0
Търси по JEL таг 0
Книжка 1/2026
JEL G17
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2671104

Резюме

The article uses the methodological approach developed by W.S. Jevons and A.L. Chizhevsky. The author found that for the years 1961–2024, immediately after each solar maximum, there was a general decrease in global GDP by an average of -1.903% over two years. The correlation coefficient of Wolf numbers in the years of maximum solar activity and the subsequent decrease in worldwide GDP percentage is -0.806. This made it possible to develop a forecast for a decrease in global GDP for 2025 and 2026 as a whole by -2.2%. The forecast value of annual GDP growth in 2025 around the world is 2.32%. The next years of high economic growth are expected to be 2027, 2028, and 2029, with projected annual global GDP growth of 4.38, 4.29, and 3.85 (%), respectively.

Как да се цитира тази статия

Belkin, V. (2025). Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024). Economic Thought Journal, 70 (4), 84–93. https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2671104

Референции

Chizhevskij, A. (1976). Zemnoe ekho solnechnyh bur'. Moskva: Izdatel'stvo “Mysl'”. [Чижевский, А. (1976). Земное эхо солнечных бурь. Москва: Издательство „Мысль“] (in Russian).

Jevons, W.S. (1882, July 6). The solar-commercial cycles. Nature, February 2025. Potsdam Helmholtz Center. 226–228. Available at https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/kpdata?startdate=1932-01-01&enddate=2024-12-11&format=avgapkpdatadownload-143

Valentinov, A. (2005, January 28). Magnitnyj shtil' ne luchshe buri? Rossijskaya gazeta [Валентинов, A. (2005). Магнитный штиль не лучше бури? Росси́йская газе́та, 28 января] (in Russian). Available at https://rg.ru/2005/01/28/magnitnie-bury.html

World Bank Group. GDP growth (annual %). Available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the international sunspot number (2025, February). Sunspot Number. Yearly mean total sunspot number [1700–now]. Available at https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/datafiles

NASA, https://www.nasa.gov/solar-cycle-progression-and-forecast/.

 

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