Оригинална статия Обща икономика и преподаване

US FEDERAL RESERVE RATE AND SOLAR ACTIVITY (1955-2022): PROOF OF STRONG CORRELATIONS

Владимир Белкин - Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Получена: 05 юни 2023
Ревизирана:
Публикувана:
Сваляния: 0
Търси по JEL таг 0
Книжка 2/2023
JEL G17
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368204

Резюме

The report uses a methodological approach founded by Jevons and Chizhevskij. The years of solar cycles have been numbered according to the order established in the astrophysics of the un, then grouped and compared with the arithmetic averages of effective rates for US federal funds. Grouping statistical data by serial numbers of years of solar activity cycles has made it possible to construct a function of effective rates on federal funds (dependent variable) and serial numbers of years of the average solar activity cycle (independent variable) with correlation coefficients on its four segments close to 1 (0.99499269, -0.998464195, 0.986985363, -0.996221106). This function enables predicting the values of the effective interest rate on US federal funds in subsequent years. It follows that in 2023 this rate will increase to 1.996%.

Как да се цитира тази статия

Belkin, V. (2023). US Federal Reserve Rate and Solar Activity (1955-2022): Proof of Strong Correlations. Economic Thought Journal, 68 (2), 220-229. https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368204

Референции

Belkin, V. (2023). VVP SSHA i solnechnaya aktivnost' (1948-2022): dokazatel'stvo sil'nykh svyazey. [Белкин, В. (2023). ВВП США и солнечная активность (1948-2022): доказательство сильных связей]. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32197.73446/2 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367476765_VVP_SSA_I_SOLNECNAA_AKTIVNOST_1948-2022_DOKAZATELSTVO_SILNYH_SVAZEJ_US_GDP_AND_SOLAR_ ACTIVITY_1948-2022_EVIDENCE_OF_STRONG_TIES (in Russian).

Chizhevskij, A. L. (1995). Kosmicheskij pul's zhizni. Moskva: Izdatel'stvo „Mysl“. [Чижевский, А. Л. (1995). Космический пульс жизни. Москва: Издательство „Мысль“] (in Russian).

Chizhevskij, A. L. (1976). Zemnoe ekho solnechnyh bur'. Moskva: Izdatel'stvo „Mysl“. [Чижевский,  А.  Л.  (1976).  Земное  эхо  солнечных  бурь.  Москва: Издательство „Мысль“] (in Russian).

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Economic data. (2023, March). Federal Funds Effective Rate. Available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS.

Jevons, W. S. (1882). The solar-commercial cycles. Nature, July 6, 226-228.

Spaceweather.com. (2023, March). What's up in space. Available at https https:// www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=01&year=2022.

World Bank. (2023, March). Grossdomesticproduct 2021. Available athttps://databankfiles. worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf.

World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the international sunspot number. Sunspot Number. Yearly mean total sunspot number [1700–now]. Available at: http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics.


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