Резюме

The emigration potential is estimated, as well as the profile of settlers and the temporary long-term and short-term Bulgarian emigrants. The difference between the actual emigration and the generally declared intention to travel abroad is discussed. The data from two surveys carried out using the same questionnaire in 2001 and 2003 is used. When identifying the profile of emigrants there have been established two types of variables: demographics; employment, education and previous stay abroad. There are used standard cross-tabulations and binary logit-models. Three individual logit-models for each type of emigrant are estimated. It is emphasized that: the immediate emigration potential from Bulgaria (within the current year) does not differ dramatically from that of the countries of Central Europe; age and previous stay abroad are among the most important determinants of emigration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens; employment, education and incomes do not have the expected influence. It is argumented that migratory policies, based on restrictions and bilateral agreements (in their European version), could hardly be effective under the conditions of the newly created migration networks and the business which has found a niche in the provision of emigration services.