Оригинална статия Обща икономика и преподаване

ИМА ЛИ ДОКАЗАТЕЛСТВА, ПОДКРЕПЯЩИ ХИПОТЕЗАТА НА ЕКОЛОГИЧНАТА КРИВА НА КУЗНЕЦ ЗА КИТАЙ? ТЕСТВАНЕ НА ГРАНИЦИТЕ С ARDL

Б. Венкатрая - Институт за развитие на мениджмънт, Мисор-Индия
Получена: 30 май 2022
Ревизирана:
Публикувана:
Сваляния: 0
Търси по JEL таг 0
Книжка 1/2021
JEL Q56 C02
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2166104

Резюме

Направен е опит за емпирично изследване на връзката между замърсяването на околната среда, икономическия растеж и търговската отвореност на Китай. Изследването използва модифицирана екологична крива на Кузнец

като теоретична рамка и проучва дали Китай показва съпоставими с нея резултати чрез тестване на границите с помощта на авторегресионен модел с разпределителен лаг (ARDL). За да се отчете въздействието на икономическия растеж и международната търговия върху емисиите на въглероден диоксид в Китай, традиционният модел емисии-доходи е оценен с променливи като БВП на човек от населението, БВП на човек от населението на квадрат и търговска отвореност с годишни данни за периода 1971-2014 г. Резултатите показват, че емисиите на CO2 в страната са силно еластични спрямо равнището на доходите, а стимулираният от повишаването на доходите растеж над определено ниво води до по-чиста и по-малко замърсена околна среда. Установява се също, че в дългосрочен план растежът, стимулиран от търговията, причинява повече замърсяване на околната среда. Емпиричните доказателства от изследването потвърждават хипотезата на екологичната крива на Кузнец за Китай в дългосрочен план. Резултатите имат съществено значение за политиката в страната те показват,че трябва да се наблегне на насърчаването на онези политически мерки, които ще позволят намаляване на емисиите, свързани с икономическия растеж, стимулиран от търговията.


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