Original article Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

Statistical risk assessment in bank lending to citizens

Irena Stefanova - Economic Research Institute аt BAS
Received: 10 Jun 2022
Revised:
Published:
Downloads: 0
Citations: 0
Issue 1/2016
JEL G21 C25 C52
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj1661103

Abstract

In this article, construction of a logistic regression scoring model is presented as a statistical tool to determine the likelihood a borrower to fall into a state of failure. The study is done with Bulgarian real data. The main stages of modeling regression equation are described: sampling data modeling; statistical analysis of the data in terms of quality and completeness; selection of an appropriate logistic regression equation; analysis and evaluation of the performance of the selected regression model. The used data include information about citizens who are borrowers in the banking sector in Bulgaria. The data were processed by means of the statistical software IBM SPSS Statistics v19.

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