Original article Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Chances for fiscal and monetary impact on Bulgaria’s economic cycle

Ivan Todorov - South-West University "Neofit Rilski"
Alexander Aleksandrov - South-West University "Neofit Rilski"
Received: 07 Jun 2022
Revised:
Published:
Downloads: 0
Citations: 0
Issue 3/2018
JEL E62 E32 E52 E63
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj1863304

Abstract

The chances for fiscal and monetary influence on the business cycle of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement have been analyzed. The determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phase and output gap from the first quarter of 2000 till the second quarter of 2017 have been identified. The effects of minimum reserve requirements, fiscal balance, government revenue, government expenditure and government debt on the business cycle phase and the output gap have been studied. Two research methods have been employed – logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression of times series data. The study results imply that all mentioned variables except for government debt have a statistically significant impact on the output gap. The business cycle phase is significantly affected by all mentioned variables with the exception of government expenditure.

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