Оригинална статия General Economics and Teaching

US FEDERAL RESERVE RATE AND SOLAR ACTIVITY (1955-2022): PROOF OF STRONG CORRELATIONS

Vladimir Belkin - Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Received: 05 Jun 2023
Revised:
Published:
Downloads: 0
Citations: 0
Issue 2/2023
JEL G17
DOI https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368204

Abstract

The report uses a methodological approach founded by Jevons and Chizhevskij. The years of solar cycles have been numbered according to the order established in the astrophysics of the un, then grouped and compared with the arithmetic averages of effective rates for US federal funds. Grouping statistical data by serial numbers of years of solar activity cycles has made it possible to construct a function of effective rates on federal funds (dependent variable) and serial numbers of years of the average solar activity cycle (independent variable) with correlation coefficients on its four segments close to 1 (0.99499269, -0.998464195, 0.986985363, -0.996221106). This function enables predicting the values of the effective interest rate on US federal funds in subsequent years. It follows that in 2023 this rate will increase to 1.996%.

How to cite this article

Belkin, V. (2023). US Federal Reserve Rate and Solar Activity (1955-2022): Proof of Strong Correlations. Economic Thought Journal, 68 (2), 220-229. https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368204

References

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